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Market Review
Tucson Statistics from MLS / Estimating Your Homes Value
Our View of the Market
As the holidays and the end of year approach
OUR VIEW OF THE TUCSON MARKET
--The year will end with about the same number of units that sold in Tucson MLS for 2002.
--The average sales price in 2002 was $183,000. The average sales price in Oct. of 2007 is $263,000. That is a 44% increase in appreciation in a 5 year period.
--There has not been a "plunging" of home values as suggested by the press. Quite the contrary in Tucson, our prices have been stable and actually went up by a percentage point in the last quarter.
--Real Estate is a local business. You cannot compare Tucson to Phoenix let alone the Nation. The same applies to pricing and local average sales prices. You cannot say that all subdivisions have increased or decreased the same in values.
--The neighborhoods that have been impacted the most are the subdivisions that were built 2 to 3 years ago and are now competing with brand new construction. The builders are giving huge incentives for buyers to buy and it is difficult to compete with that if you are trying to sell your 2 year old home.
--There are lots of opportunities for today's Home Buyer. Lots of choices, still low interest rates, and motivation galore. It is a great time to buy up or down. In fact, one could make a case for if someone wanted to retire in 2 years and wanted to buy a smaller home, they may want to consider doing that now because prices may go up and interest rates may rise.
--Jobs drive the Real Estate market. The more So. Az expands and creates jobs, the faster we will see the market build up the steam we experienced in 2004 and 2005.
What’s being said
National USA Today – 12/10/2007
Housing market is stabilizing, optimistic Realtors say
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer
WASHINGTON — Bucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real estate agents said Monday that the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales.
The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.5% this year to 5.67 million — the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year.
The Realtors' group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.
Numerous other economists are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy sinks into a recession.
USA Today 11/29/200
Price of new home tumbles in October even as sales rise
WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The median sales price of a new single-family home dove sharply in October, but sales rose 1.7% and the inventory of homes fell slightly, according to a government report Thursday that delivered uneven news for the ailing housing sector.
The median sales price for a new home fell 8.6% to $217,800 from $238,400 in September — the sharpest month-over-month decline since September 1981, the Commerce Department said. The price was down 13% from the year-earlier month, the largest year-over-year fall since September 1970.
You may already know this -
President Bush Announces Industry Agreement
to Freeze Sub-Prime Mortgage Rates
Following weeks of talks with Treasury Department officials, mortgage lenders and Wall Street firms, President Bush announced today an agreement to freeze interest rates for up to five years for some borrowers with sub-prime loans.
What you need to know about the agreement:
- The agreement will allow distressed borrowers who are current on their sub-prime loan payments to keep their low introductory rates
- The rate freeze will apply to loans taken out between January 1, 2005, and July 30, 2007, and scheduled to rise in 2008 and 2009
- The rate freeze will exclude the following groups:
- Borrowers who are delinquent on payments
- Borrowers whose introductory rates expire before January 1, 2008
- Borrowers who mortgage companies determine have sufficient income to pay the higher rates
According to recent news reports, administration officials said the rate freeze was only part of a broader plan. For more information, refer to this White House fact sheet, articles from today’s news and the MBA Website for their latest press releases.
More ON TUCSON
Developers face new water-supply rules in Pima County
By Erica Meltzer
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 11.27.2007
Excertps
Pima County, for the first time, will look at future water use before deciding whether developers can build more houses or businesses.
Environmentalists and county officials have long been concerned that current policy does not consider the effect of groundwater pumping on the environment or neighboring wells.
The proposed policy changes would require developers to provide detailed information about their water sources, location within a given water basin and proximity to any ecosystems dependent on groundwater when requesting a comprehensive plan amendment, often the first step in a rezoning.
Hopes are high for Marana's Uptown
Newly rezoned 205 acres will mix commercial, residential properties
By Brian J. Pedersen
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 11.24.2007
Marana officials hope this won't be just another new development.
The Marana Town Council earlier this month approved the rezoning of 205 acres on the west side of Interstate 10 at Marana Road for Uptown at Marana.
Unlike most developments to have popped up in Marana during its growth boom, the Uptown project isn't planned as simply a row of rooftops or a pile of storefronts.
Bank Of America Survey of Agents by Market
November 29, 2007 for October
Tucson, AZ(7,638 single-family permits in 2006, 32nd largest market in the country) Traffic below expectations. Buyer traffic improved slightly in November off of aweak base, with our index increasing to 13.0 from 5.2 in October, still well belowagents’ expectations (any readings below 50)). 90% of agents said traffic was belowexpectations, and 10% said it was in-line with expectations.
Pricing and incentives deteriorate. Our price index was unchanged at 16.7 in
November from 16.7 in October, still indicating sequentially lower home prices (any
reading below 50 point to lower prices over the past 30 days). 74% of agents said
prices were lower, 19% said they were unchanged, and 7% said they were higher.
Incentives also worsened, as our index came in at 22.0 in November (from 19.2 in
October), with any reading below 50 pointing to higher incentives. 60% of agents said
incentives increased, 36% said they were unchanged, and 4% said they were lower.
Length of time needed to sell a home increased – a negative indicator for future
pricing trends. Our time to sell index measured 19.2 in November (up from 13.8 in
October), pointing to a longer time needed to sell a home relative to last month
(readings below 50 indicate a longer time to sell). 73% of agents said it took longer to
sell a home, 15% said the time to sell was unchanged, and 12% said it took less time to
sell over the past 30 days.
“There are very few buyers in the market. When buyers come into
open houses, the feedback is they will offer well below asking price, or
they are waiting until the market gets worse so they can get it for cheaper.”
Source: Banc of America Securities LLC. Pima population growth to slow — microscopically
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 12.06.2007
Pima County's rate of population growth will slow in the next seven years, but so slightly — despite the housing downturn — "you won't even notice," says planner David Taylor.
Until at least 2015, annual growth rates will stay over 2 percent, where they've been for a decade-plus. Those are the latest forecasts from Taylor, of the Pima Association of Governments, and Marshall Vest, University of Arizona economic and business-research director.
"Tucson in really good years will grow 2.5 percent," Vest said. "In bad years, 2 percent."
Tucson’s Average Home Price
Tucson Home Inventory
Summary
So, what does this mean to you ?
Seller’s – the home you are selling has more competition in the market. That makes the pricing and “look” of the home more important than ever. Dress it up and price it right.
Buyer’s – Mortgage money is available and there are many homes to choose from. New construction builders are still offering incentives and many have their own financing companies to make the “deal” happen.
So is the timing right to pull the trigger on YOUR real estate decision? You make the call OR call ( 866 316 5575) – Ben & Kim Boldt at Premier Tucson Homes – Long Realty – to discuss your Tucson real estate interests and our view of the market.
We look forward to hearing from you.
PS - You will also notice – and hopefully like – our new newsletter format – more concise, but still informative and fun. Check it Out!
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